While I get the gist of the article, I would disagree that a redesign is "a random drop" on the landscape. There are often times when designers take a rather intuitive and blind approach to a radical redesign, and you are correct in saying this is a short sighted approach. What happens when you have a ton of research to back it up? That is a redesign with a much better idea of where the global maximums could be, thus reducing risk. Agencies do this all the time and they are often very successful in their results. This is why companies like IDEO are so successful. Due diligence and process demystifies the landscape and sets you up for success.