I think this opinion piece is approximating the right message, but is coming from a the wrong messenger.
Dan: As a designer at Drop Box, you're an elite independent of your thoughts or world view. So the argument becomes internally incoherent coming from your mouth. I think that's the main source of most of your criticism.
But, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I agree with your argument. I'm a mechanical engineer by training and started my career in manufacturing. There are a crazy amount of resources and accumulated wisdom needed to manifest ideas in the physical world. I know that there should be an expectation of efficiency in creating software vs. hardware, but you can't tell me in your heart of hearts that anything you can do in 8 hours should be worth $1M in funding (yes, I know how VC works — $1M = X% of the company @ $Y valuation based on rev/user growth by year 5 + assumption_N).
But there is fundamentally a bubble happening in this industry. I was just commenting about the direction the wordpress theme market went in another thread (in reference to the UI8 bundle sale). When you can buy a theme for $30 or build an app in 8 hours, the bottom is eventually going to drop out of the market. Wired did some really good reporting on this that's worth reading.
But more importantly, no one has found a business model for the consumer internet outside of advertising. Google and Facebook (maybe twitter) have captured the market for online advertising, and nearly every successful exit in the valley has been a function of growing a user base and selling to one of the companies above or being acquihired (eyeroll :p).
I think this opinion piece is approximating the right message, but is coming from a the wrong messenger.
Dan: As a designer at Drop Box, you're an elite independent of your thoughts or world view. So the argument becomes internally incoherent coming from your mouth. I think that's the main source of most of your criticism.
But, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I agree with your argument. I'm a mechanical engineer by training and started my career in manufacturing. There are a crazy amount of resources and accumulated wisdom needed to manifest ideas in the physical world. I know that there should be an expectation of efficiency in creating software vs. hardware, but you can't tell me in your heart of hearts that anything you can do in 8 hours should be worth $1M in funding (yes, I know how VC works — $1M = X% of the company @ $Y valuation based on rev/user growth by year 5 + assumption_N).
But there is fundamentally a bubble happening in this industry. I was just commenting about the direction the wordpress theme market went in another thread (in reference to the UI8 bundle sale). When you can buy a theme for $30 or build an app in 8 hours, the bottom is eventually going to drop out of the market. Wired did some really good reporting on this that's worth reading.
But more importantly, no one has found a business model for the consumer internet outside of advertising. Google and Facebook (maybe twitter) have captured the market for online advertising, and nearly every successful exit in the valley has been a function of growing a user base and selling to one of the companies above or being acquihired (eyeroll :p).